The images of Gadhafi begging for mercy were received with dread in the offices of the Ba'ath party in Syria. If anyone thought that the violent suppression of demonstrations would spare Arab leaders from a fate similar to that which befell Mubarak, the mangled corpse of Libya's former leader made it clear what the alternative to the prison cage is. Assad understands that he is in the fight of his life. The upheaval in his country has not died down for an instant, even if the Israeli and international media coverage has faded. Now, the world's attention will likely shift back to Syria, and the pressure on the regime, both from within and from without, will intensify. Most Syrians are either participants in the uprising in some form, or support it. The images coming out of Libya have provided them with something of a tail wind. The basic assumption on Syria has been reversed. Now, the question is not if Bashar Assad will survive the uprising, but when he will fall, and who will replace him. As Libyans stood in line to get their picture taken with Gadhafi's corpse, Syria's leader announced this week that he is replacing two district governors, in Damascus and in Idlib. In parallel, one can expect a stronger Allawite response to the demonstrations. Assad is pulling no punches in his attempt to cling to power, but the general trend is working against him. Most of the Syrian army remains confined to its bases, so as to prevent Sunni soldiers and officers from defecting en masse to the opposition. The interesting question now is not what the regime's next moves will be, but how Syria will look the day after it falls, and during the period of transition to a new system of government in the country. During the transition, an interesting role will be played by the Saudis. For years, since the days of Nasser, Saudi Arabia has battled Egypt for hegemony in the Arab world, but since the fall of Mubarak it has been surprised to find itself alone in the ring. Other leaders who sought to exert their influence in the Arab world, such as Saddam Hussein and Gadhafi, have also been eliminated. A new generation is struggling for supremacy in the region, led by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, neither of whom are Arab. This is Saudi Arabia's moment - it must take concrete steps, and not simply non-binding initiatives. The Sunni world has already lost Lebanon, but now it has the chance to take back Syria. Ahmadinejad, who along with Iran represents Shi'ite Islam, has already signaled his country's intention to fill the void that will be created in Iraq after the departure of American forces at the end of the year. Despite its domestic troubles, Iran has identified an opportunity in the Arab Spring, and it is helping fan the flames of uprisings in the Gulf states, while actively exercising its influence over the Shi'ite minorities in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Syria is key to the struggle: it represents a Sunni anchor, breaking up the Shi'ite continuum which stretches across Iran, Bahrain, eastern Saudi Arabia and Lebanon. The Saudis recognize the threat posed by Iran, but it is not clear whether Saudi King Abdullah is capable of rising to the occasion and living up to the responsibility placed upon his shoulders, or if he will prefer to continue focusing on his own internal issues and on stabilizing his rule. This month marked the end of an era in the Arab world. The mysterious wrestling matches between the heads of state, which set the tone for decades, are over. Abdullah finds himself on his own, and it is not at all certain that this victory pleases him. His first test will be in the struggle against the spreading dominance of the Shi'ites. The eyes of the Sunni world will be watching him.
Get the Israel Hayom newsletter sent to your mailbox!
Like our newsletter? 'Like' our Facebook page!
