The winds of war have blown over the Ukrainian plains and as Russia sends its forces into the country it seems that this is indeed the way things are headed. After weeks of blatant anti-revolutionary Russian television propaganda and harsh declarations by the Foreign Ministry in Moscow about violating treaties between the Ukrainian opposition and the Western powers backing it, and the establishment of a government with nationalistic tendencies that Moscow says endanger the rights of the Russian-speaking population, reports indicate that Russian army forces are being deploying on the Crimean peninsula, and possibly beyond.
Authorities in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, most of whose residents are ethnic Russians, have admitted to cooperating with the security actions of the Russian forces and have decided to hold a referendum this month on the peninsula's status. Russian flags have been flown in some of the major Russian-speaking cities in the area.
We are witnessing an unusual and politically dangerous intervention on Russia's part that does nothing less than rattle the foundations of the current world order. If at the beginning it looked like Russia was just showing the new government in Kiev (and the Western capitals) that it was determined to protect its interests in the country, it now looks like facts are being forcibly determined on the ground. At the very least, the Russians are seeking to protect the Russian-speaking population in eastern and southern Ukraine from the new regime and the Ukrainian extremists. They will be happy to take these areas under their protection while exploiting the weakness of the new Ukrainian government and the passivity of the international community, while also preventing the entire Ukraine from moving under the protective wing of the West.
At the time this column was being written, Russia's exact plan was unclear, but the matching declarations by the government in Moscow and those of ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych -- who won't acknowledge his ouster (and who in a press conference in Russia called upon his hosts to intervene in the Ukraine) -- raises the suspicion that Russia's intentions could extend beyond the Crimean peninsula. It is also possible that Russia has a more modest plan and is acting as circumstances dictate to maximize its political gain. But even if its plans are limited, anti-government developments in other Russian-speaking areas of the Ukraine or violence against that population by the authorities or by the Ukrainian extremists could spur it to more serious intervention than it originally intended.
One way or the other, recent events have raised the question of where Western nations fit into the crisis. At first, they pushed for compromises between Yanukovych and the opposition that did not come to pass, and now look like they are waiting in preparation for Russia's actions to dictate the next move.
The international community is facing a major test, possibly the biggest one since the end of the Cold War. The next gambit is supposed to be by the major Western powers, with the U.S. in the lead. Current actions show us that in recent years the Russian regime has become more extreme than most of us thought, but its nomenclature at the mid and lower echelons is sensitive to the stance of the West and tied to the West both personally and through monetary investments. World powers have limited scope for response, but the decisiveness of that response, if only diplomatic, could determine the extent of Russia's actions and possibly even the future of the Ukraine.
Yuri Teper is a lecturer in political science at Ariel University. His work focuses on Russian politics and the post-Soviet space.
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