Despite the rage expressed Sunday by Israeli officials, if the terms of the deal inked between Iran and the West in Geneva are followed to the letter, Tehran stands to emerge as the biggest loser from the agreement.
As part of the deal, Iran has agreed to a series of obligations subjecting its nuclear activity to international supervision. In the past, Tehran had rejected similar demands, losing out on extensive economic incentives.
One of the biggest concessions Iran has made is agreeing to inspections, including surprise inspections, by the International Atomic Energy Agency, whose inspectors will now be granted free access to any and all nuclear facilities, including those Iran has never admitted to actually having. The inspectors will also be allowed to formulate detailed reports on the facilities, the equipment installed in them and the manner in which they are being used.
The West's demand for such inspections has been something Iran has adamantly rejected over the past decade. At the time, then-Iranian President Mohammad Khatami's government was pressured into agreeing to some international supervision over the country's nuclear activity, but the matter still had to be ratified by Tehran's parliament, which promptly "buried" it. The deal struck over the weekend in Geneva saw Iran assume every last condition without having its parliament weigh in on the matter.
The radical forces in Tehran can do little to censure the deal, as Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has already lauded it, but those opposing the deal with Iran are unlikely to remain silent -- they will continue to oppose the deal and push the nuclear program forward.
Iran's race to Geneva and its efforts to secure a deal are a testimony to the dire economic straits plaguing the Islamic republic following years of Western-imposed financial sanctions. Tehran's coffers are so empty that the government can no longer fund the subsidies promised to the Iranian people, or create jobs. Unemployment has also been steadily rising ever since the country's oil exports were placed under embargo.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stressed Sunday that Tehran must now focus on resolving the country's economic problems, but it is doubtful if the $7 billion the U.S. believes Iran will see as a result of the mitigation in sanctions will stretch beyond the next few months.
Sunday morning saw the Iranian people take to the streets and celebrate their "victory." But by the afternoon hours, when the Persian translation of the Geneva accord was released, the cheers quickly died down. The true answer as to who is the winner and who is the loser here will become clear only as the timeframe allotted for the deal draws to a close. Until then, the Iranians have nothing to celebrate.
Menashe Amir is the former head of Israel Radio's Persian language division and an expert on Iran.
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