The Russians do not like to lose. But despite that fighting spirit, that is exactly what happened during the Cold War in the 1980s. The loss was so painful and so agitating that, even today, Russian nationalists continue to damn Mikhail Gorbachev, the last Soviet president, accusing him of pawning off the homeland to the Americans. Toward the end of the 1980s, what really distinguished between the two superpowers were the economic failures wearing away at the Soviet Union, rather than America's military plan. Today, some 22 years since the Soviet Union collapsed, the Cold War is still alive and kicking.
As the crisis in Ukraine draws on, U.S. President Barack Obama has been discussing economic sanctions against Russia, Russian legislators have demanded that the Russian ambassador to the U.S. be recalled and the international community has been increasingly concerned that a real war is about to break out between the two rivals. Even though nobody has really been worrying about the prospect of nuclear war, the possible economic fallout from a confrontation between the two superpowers has been awfully disconcerting to world leaders as a whole. Threatening economic sanctions against Russia, measures the U.S. has been discussing with the EU, led to a market plunge. The Russians -- confident that nothing would affect the markets -- were flabbergasted once panic took hold and the markets started to destabilize. Shares of Russian gas and oil giants such as Gazprom and Lukoil simply plummeted and the ruble fell.
These reasons probably inspired Putin's conciliatory tone during the latest conversation he had with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The dip in Russian markets showed the Kremlin what could happen should Russia decide to invade Ukraine. Today's Russia is not rushing to start wars, especially when it has other options to achieve its goals. Putin, for good reason, decided not to launch a war in the classic sense of the word, even if he emphasized that Russia has "the right to use force." He surely understands the catastrophic after effects war would have on the Russian markets. Trying to avoid the kind of inflation Russia knew following the Soviet Union's collapse, he acted tactfully. He may not be willing to give up Ukraine, but he is willing to give up the war.
Putin's demonstration of force in Crimea was meant to show the West just how serious the Russian government is, and what its capabilities are, but it in no way marked the initial stages of war. Comparisons between Ukraine and Georgia and the ramifications of both conflicts are erroneous. Since Putin has become so adept at replacing people in key positions, the military option seems less favorable. The Russian president also knows that Ukraine will not be able to resolve its economic woes by itself. Somebody is going to have to lend a helping hand, and the U.S. and the EU, it seems, do not really want to get involved; they have their own problems.
The Ukrainians' last hope is the Kremlin. Putin has enough economic muscle to convince the new Ukrainian government that it cannot survive without cooperating. When the winds die down we are going to see the full extent of Russia's inextricable influence -- not just in Crimea, but in the Ukrainian parliament itself. The current round of the Cold War is finishing up with a Russian win, it seems, setting a dangerous precedent in the relationship between modern Russia and the West.
Elina Bardach-Yalov has a doctorate in strategic communications and is a political commentator on Russian-language Channel 9.
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