American intervention in Syria, which looks almost certain, raises questions about regional and global fallout. Israel must read the map of interests in advance and prepare, among other things, for the possibility of an escalation of hostilities along its northern border.
The Syrian regime has needed to face several challenges on the diplomatic, domestic and economic fronts, some existential, since the rise to power of President Bashar Assad. Like other countries, Syria was affected by the events of 9/11, which abruptly changed the reality across the globe and especially in the Middle East, creating a new agenda in the pan-Arab arena.
At the same time, the effects of Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon were also being felt. This strengthened the Syrian perception in its fight against Israel, whereby long-term "resistance" would gradually wear Israel down. Syria also expressed its happiness with Hezbollah by strengthening and deepening its support for the organization and upgrading it to the status of strategic ally. Thanks to its unconventional weapons capabilities and its allies, Syria was able to create a "balance of fear" against Israel.
Since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, Assad has received aid from Hezbollah and Iran. We know what Hezbollah's interests are, based on the words of its leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah: "Syria is the backbone of the resistance and a support for the resistance and the resistance cannot sit idly by while its back is being broken ... If Syria falls into the hands of America, Israel, the takfiris [Muslims who accuse other Muslims of apostasy], and all of America's tools in the region, the resistance will find itself under siege, and Israel will invade Lebanon, in order to impose its terms on the Lebanese people, and in order to revive its aspirations and schemes."
In recent days, as the calls for international intervention and military action against Assad intensify, Israel's defense establishment must prepare for the possibility of hostilities with Hezbollah along the northern border. Due to the complex web of interests and considerations emanating from the Syria-Hezbollah-Iran axis, particularly in light of Syria's inability to open a direct front against the U.S. as a response to an American attack, Assad will aim to hit a closer target -- Israel -- via Hezbollah. An American attack would likely lead to an attack on Israel from Lebanon, as an expression of Syria's opposition toward the U.S.
A second factor is Hezbollah's interest to prove that its strength has not eroded and that its capabilities in Lebanon and beyond have not weakened, even after its investment in helping Assad in Syria.
A third factor is Hezbollah's interest in preserving Assad's hold on power, because he is, as stated by Nasrallah, the "backbone of the resistance." His fall could put an end to the era in which Arab states support violent subversive groups in the Middle East. Another factor is Hezbollah's interest in thwarting any American attempt to impose its agenda in the region, out of concern that the U.S. would be able to influence the organization at a later date.
Finally, Iran also believes that deep intervention by Western and pro-Western Muslim Arab states in its personal affairs in Syria could lead to the establishment of a pro-Western regime there. Such a regime will remove Syria from the "resistance camp" and provide a political challenge to Iran and Hezbollah's influence in Syria the day after. Syria's exit from the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis will weaken the axis and Iran's ability to threaten (directly or indirectly) a response against Israel if it or the U.S. attacks it. With this considered, Iran will pressure Hezbollah and help it attack Israel as a response to an American offensive in Syria.
All of these factors mean that Israel could find itself in either a limited or large-scale clash in southern Lebanon very soon. Yet even though this would happen against Israel's wishes, it can exploit the situation to pursue its own interests and deal Hezbollah a mortal blow. The political echelon, Israel Defense Forces and Homefront Command must set clear and attainable goals, because a clearly defined military operation that has been properly prepared for will make the difference for Israel in its struggle against Hezbollah.
The writer is a research fellow in the Military and Strategic Affairs program at the Institute for National Security Studies.
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